Tariff Turmoil and and the Industrialisation of Intelligence

We are on thin ice. The twin transitions to a new world manufacturing order, and the industrialisation of intelligence are here. As the Trump tariff turmoil is paused, China’s “Manus” which went viral on “X”, foreshadows a new technological order. Manus converts our ideas into actions. It thinks, plans, and executes tasks autonomously, with a boundless attention span. It can Mokojumbie real-world contexts as seamlessly as a skilled human intern.

Manus mixes twenty-nine tools and a gamut of open-source programs. It can run scripts, browse the web, interact with APIs, and develop software independently. Manus operates in the cloud. This means that users can ask Manus to execute a task while shutting down their computer, and the task will continue to be executed by an “invisible hand” that opens browser tabs, completes forms, writes emails, codes software, and makes decisions in real-time. Manus runs asynchronously in the cloud and continues its work even when you log off. Manus utilizes a multi-agent architecture.

The central “executor” or concierge coordinates with specialised sub-agents using a distributed problem-solving process that breaks a problem into a series of Lego blocks. Most importantly, Manus is not a new AI model. It is an assemblage of existing models built on top of Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and tailored versions of Alibaba’s Qwen models. Manus is an agent that delivers end-to-end results across diverse domains without relying on AI prompt engineering techniques such as Atom of Thought (AoT) and Chain of Thought (CoT).

Current AI models require some level of continuous human input. Manus offers a seamless, self-directed experience. While autonomous agents already exist in niche domains, Manus’ multi-agent architecture enhances its ability to manage complex workflows by deploying specialised sub-agents for various tasks. Moreover, current domain-specific agents focus on niche activities, whereas Manus displays general-purpose versatility, effortlessly generating outputs and even constructing entire websites from zero.

It is viewed as the new Holy Grail. It does not merely generate information; rather, it finds applications, addresses errors, and refines its outputs as it works. This development poses an existential threat to existing AI models as it suggests a possible shift towards self-directed actions. Manus symbolizes the industrialisation of intelligence and may help shorten the human workweek as it takes on more tasks, leading to improved work-life balance for humans.

As the tariff turbulence spreads, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle must rebalance their portfolios of technology projects and investments without the benefit of additional budget. Approximately one trillion dollars has already been allocated to data centre buildout projects that power AI services globally. Trump tariffs on various materials used to construct data centres that deliver AI services may increase the cost of these materials, including steel and transformers.

The far-reaching tariffs could benefit companies constructing the infrastructure to deliver AI services, ultimately influencing the cost of using AI. The prices of materials required to construct these data centres are presently unstable. China mines about ninety per cent of the world’s rare earth elements (REEs). These elements are used in the electronics industry. Semiconductor companies use REEs to manufacture graphic processing units (GPUs). REEs are foundational to technological advances in AI, gaming and data centres.

Holding about five per cent of the world’s total mineral resources, Ukraine is ranked as a top ten global provider. Ukraine has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals listed by the EU as critical. This includes ferroalloys, and rare earth elements (REEs). Ukraine has 20,000 mineral deposits. Fifteen per cent of these deposits were actively exploited before 2022. Over $350bn in mineral deposits are now in occupied territories.

But it is not the first time that a new trade order has caused disruption. The India that the British East India Company (EIC) conquered was a polyfocal jewel. The rise of the EIC was enabled by military and naval resources, legislation, loans from the Bank of England, and supportive foreign policy to counter competition from European countries. Before the EIC gained dominance, Goa, Chittagong, and Bombay were all once under Portuguese rule. Chandernagore, Karaikal, Mahe, Pondicherry, and Yanam were part of French India.

India was once the principal manufacturer and exporter of fabrics. However, its textile industry experienced the first great deindustrialization of the modern world. It was the beginning of reversed development in India. As India no longer wove or spun much of the cotton it produced – master weavers became insolvent. As the Industrial Revolution financed by the triangular slave trade transformed manufacturing in Europe, India became the victim of technological obsolescence.

Between 1801 and 1839 British ships were built in Bengal. When the Charter Act of 1813 dismantled the EIC’s monopoly on trade, British merchants were allowed to participate in the India-England trade, effectively obliterating the role of Bengal-built ships in that trade. This created new employment opportunities for caulkers, sawyers, joiners, and shipwrights in England.

As markets take their medicine, China’s Manus may nurture the development of unanticipated e-commerce models. Manus is an existential threat. It is not an extension or augmentation of existing AI models, it is a new category of intelligence. It shifts the focus from passive assistance to self-directed action that may reengineer e-commerce.